In a stunning turn of events, it looks like Hugo Chavez's referendum is going down in defeat. Hopefully that will mean that he will step down when his term as President expires in 2012. But does this mean that democracy in Venezuela is safe? No one knows the answer to that question. Chavez still wields tremendous power and controls a rubber stamp Congress that will do his bidding.

It could be that Chavez will try again before 2012. Maybe even several times. Chavez could also try to arrange something similar to Russia's Putin where he will hand pick a successor, and created a new office for himself that will still control the political power in the country. Another big question is the opposition. Several different groups came together to prevent Chavez from winning this election. Could this coalition hold and create a second party with enough clout to create a counter to Chavez's power? A lot could happen, and I hope for the sake of the people in Venezuela, that it will work out for the best for them.

One thing is certain though. Chavez's opponents must try to appeal to all classes in Venezuela. That means they must try to help the poor and work to promote a strong and prosperous middle class. The best weapon against socialism is a strong and free middle class. If the majority of people in a country are prosperous, and they feel like they have opportunities to advance economically, then they will be less likely to allow themselves to be drawn in and suffocated by the siren song of socialism.

- Thomas Paine 2

Technorati Tags: communism, Hugo Chavez, socialism, Venezuela